Monday, Jun 6, 2016
Director of The Rebovich Institute for NJ Politics puts a potential Clinton victory into context
by Adam Grybowski
Hillary Clinton is expected to officially clinch the Democratic nomination for president in New Jersey on June 7 and perhaps finally shut the door on her political rival, Sen. Bernie Sanders.
Following big wins in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands over the weekend, Clinton is just a handful of delegates shy of the 2,383 she needs to secure the nomination. Primary voters in New Jersey will go to the polls tomorrow, the same day as California and four other western states. Polls show that she has held a consistent lead over Sanders in the Garden State.
Because of the time difference, polls will close three hours earlier in New Jersey than the west coast, giving Clinton an opportunity to declare victory before the results are even announced in California, where polling suggests she faces a very tight contest with Sanders.
The results in New Jersey can have a big effect on California and the campaign heading into the national conventions, says Dr. Ben Dworkin, the director of The Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics at Rider University.
Pay attention to how the media reacts to a Clinton victory, he says, and how the Clinton team tries to play their widely expected victory in New Jersey.
“If she secures the votes she needs to win the nomination, the television news stations may well spend much of their east coast prime-time programming talking about how ‘it's all over,' he says. "This matters because it could shape California turnout, which will still have its polls open for three more hours.”
“It’s a bit of a double-edged sword,” says Dworkin, who is also an adjunct assistant professor of political science at Rider. “On the one hand, Clinton would want to declare victory once she is past the 2,383 threshold in order to shape the news cycle in her favor. That means speaking out as soon as New Jersey’s results push her over the top, as it is expected to do.”
“One the other hand,” he continues, “winning California is a huge symbolic victory for either Clinton or Sanders, even if the nomination is already decided. The last thing that Clinton wants is to do is depress turnout among her supporters in the Golden State who see the news and think their votes no longer matter and they can stay home.”
Exit polling in New Jersey may shed light on her lack of appeal among college students. These voters have been among the most dedicated to Sanders. However, since most college students are no longer on campus, the ability of the Sanders campaign to organize them may be much tougher.
“Another thing I’ll be looking at is the youth vote (ages 18 to 25) who have been overwhelmingly in favor of Sanders,” Dworkin says. “In the exit polling, it will be interesting to see if this demographic is a similar percentage of the overall vote and if those who come out are just as fervently behind Sanders as past polling seems to suggest, even though they are no longer on college campuses, where it might be easier to get them organized and to the polls.”
New Jersey’s polls are open from 6 a.m. to 8 p.m. Find your polling location here.
About The Rebovich Institute for NJ Politics
Founded in 2001 by the late Professor David Rebovich (1949–2007), the Institute is a dynamic and creative home where students can network, study and gain practical experience in New Jersey politics. It is dedicated to public service and scholarly analysis of government, public policy, campaigns and elections in New Jersey. In 2008, Ben Dworkin was named the new director of the Institute for New Jersey Politics, which was subsequently renamed the Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics.
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For media inquiries, please contact Director of Media Relations Kristine Brown at [email protected].